What the Ukraine War Cost Russia is everything that Putin has been building up over the past 22 years, apparently with the primary goal of getting control over the Eastern Ukraine.
Russian Economy Will Go Into Recession
- The cost of the war and the impact of the resulting boycott and economic sanctions against Russia will cripple her economy.
- The Institute of International Finance has predicted that Russia’s economy will shrink by up to 15 percent as a result of Russia’s war on Ukraine
- The Institute further predicted that the war will reverse Russia’s past 15 years of economic growth.
- In addition to the economic recession, domestic inflation in Russia, which was already over 9% in February 2022 has accelerated as the war began, and may rise to as much as a 35% annual rate by the end of 2022, acording to analysts from TS Lombard.
- Most of Russia’s civil aviation aircraft will not have spare parts or certified maintenance and will no longer be airworthy.
This will cripple industries relying on transportation of skilled specialists as well as domestic tourism.
Russia’s War in Ukraine has Cost Russia More Casualties than Russia’s 10 Year Afghanistan War
- The count of Russian soldiers killed or wounded in Ukraine depends on who is doing the counting.
- The Russian Defence Ministry has only admitted that about 1300 Russian soldiers have been killed and about 3800 have been wounded since the war began in Ukraine.
- On the other hand, NATO and Ukraine estimates have the number of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine so far at over 15,000, which would be more than the total number of Russian soldiers killed in 10 years in the Afghanistan war.
- The dead and wounded from the Afghanistan war is a constant reminder to the Russian public of the cost they were made to bear, and while a heavy propaganda and disinformation campaign has attempted to hide the casualties of this Ukraine war from the Russian public, eventually the wounded will come home and the dead will be missed by their families.
Russia has Lost its Reputation as a Reliable Energy Supplier
Threatening to use gas, oil, and coal as a political/economic weapon has backfired against Russia.
- By threatening to cut off gas and oil to Europe and other “unfriendly countries”, and by demanding payment in rubles (which was rejected as a breach of contract), Putin destroyed Russia’s reputation as a reliable supplier of gas and oil.
- Now several smaller consumers of Russian oil and gas have switched suppliers, and the remaining Western countries are speeding up their work to become totally independent of gas, oil, and coal imports from Russia.
- The European Union has resolved to reduce imports of Russian Natural gas by 66% by the end of 2022, and eliminate all imports of gas, coal, and petroleum products from Russia by no later than 2030.
- The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which would have made Europe even more dependent on Russian natural gas, will likely never be completed despite the 11 billion dollars that went into construction of this partially-completed project.
- Indeed, most of Russia’s pipelines to Europe, along with the supporting infrastructure, will become obsolete.
China, India, and a few other countries will likely continue to buy oil and gas from Russia at discounted prices while the rest of the world boycotts Russia, but the huge drop in sales will mean that there may not be enough income to maintain the wells, pipelines, human resources, and infrastructure required to maintain Russia as one of the world’s top 3 oil producers.
As a result, even if the world decided to buy oil from Russia again, after a boycott of a year or two it is possible that it could take a long time to bring Russia’s oil production to it’s former level.
These are difficult goals, and while the threat of global warming was the original motive for phasing out the use of fossil fuels, Putin handed the world a much more immediate and tangible motivation for developing energy independence, starting with independence from Russia.
Putin’s Dream of Unifying Ukraine into a Greater Russia is Shattered
The Ukraine people will never forget or forgive the atrocities and wanton destruction committed by Russia against Ukraine, which far exceeded any actions that could have been needed to achieve any of Russia’s military goals.
- Demolition of entire residential areas and other civilian targets
- Siege warfare that denied food, water, and power to some towns
- Missile, bombing, and shelling attacks on kindergartens, hospitals, nursing homes, and apartments
- Blowing up places while hundreds of civilians were gathered there to escape other bombings
- Torture, rape, and systematic execution of civilians
- Kidnapping thousands of children and relocating them into Russia
- Forced relocation of hundreds of thousands of civilians into Russia, and mass slaughter of most of the residents of some cities, which has been labeled as genocide
These atrocities, on top of the prior political manipulations, military actions in 2014 and earlier years, and other recent provocations, have turned much of Ukraine’s people against Russia and toward being as independent as possible. While joining NATO at this point may be too much of a military provocation in the middle of a war, Ukraine has already asked to join the European Community (EU).
Putin has Strengthened NATO and Western Unity by Becoming an Clear Common Enemy
Since he took office 22 years ago, Vladimir Putin has tried to weaken the West and build his political, economic, and military power through various overt and clandestine methods, including
– alleged assassination of his enemies
– supporting friendly leaders in Europe and USA through interference in elections and other means
– supporting right-wing groups in Europe,
– building up a large amount of ill-gotten wealth he can control by siphoning money and other assets out of Russia using his oligarchs, family, and other proxies
Now, in a few short weeks, Vladimir Putin has lost what he has built up over 22 years and has not yet secured his goal of the Eastern Ukraine
– Putin has unified NATO and the West and have other European countries ready to join NATO
– Putin has unified most of the United Nations against Russia
– Putin has much of the world cooperating with boycotts and other sanctions against Russia
– Much of the wealth Putin has built up and stored with his oligarchs, family, proxies, and other places has been frozen
– Putin has humiliated his army with a poor showing against a much less powerful country
– Putin has lowered the prestige of Russia to that of a pariah at the level of North Korea
– Putin has encouraged Ukraine and remaining European countries to join the European Union
