Putin assumed that he could send Russia’s army into Ukraine, conquer it in a few days, be welcomed as some kind of liberator or conquering hero, and either absorb Ukraine as some kind of Soviet Socialist Republic or control it through some puppet government that he will control.
Nothing has happened according to Putin’s plans
Ukraine’s air defenses are mobile, which made them hard to find and destroy as part of Russia’s initial invasion. As a result, Russia never gained air superiority and has lost about 100 aircraft. While these losses are a small percentage of Russia’s air force, this has discouraged Russia from relying on aircraft to conduct this war.
Russia’s ground forces are poorly trained, poorly motivated and poorly supplied and supported. Russian soldiers have been supplied with rations that expired 7 years ago and, in some cases, with dog food to eat, and have been burglarizing Ukrainian stores to get food. Their equipment has been breaking down due to poor maintenance, and supply line breakdowns mean that they are not getting fuel and spare parts. Many of their soldiers were told that they were on a training exercise and have no motivation to do battle with the people of Ukraine. Keep in mind that there are many families in both Russia and Ukraine that are a mix of Russian and Ukrainian people. If the Russian army has morale problems after a few weeks, how can it maintain an occupation?
Putin miscalculated the determination of the Ukrainian people to defend their country. The brutal attacks on Ukraine’s civilian population and civilian targets like apartments, schools, hospitals, nursing homes, and theaters has increased the resolve of Ukraine’s people and created shared experiences and stories that have unified the Ukrainian people and down seeds of hatred and distrust that will make it unlikely that Russia can hope to control Ukraine except with a permanent occupying army.
The huge cost of continuing this strategy is hurting Russia far more than any benefits Putin hoped could come from attacking Ukraine;
It has unified and strengthened the NATO alliance
It has isolated Russia as a pariah like North Korea
Economic sanctions have destroyed the value of the ruble, caused huge inflation, and disrupted life for the Russian public. Putin’s propaganda, censorship of media, and attempts to control the internet will not be enough to cultivate or maintain support from the Russian public. There were widespread protests in Russia when the war started, even before the Russian people began to feel the pain of sanctions and loss of family members killed or wounded in the war. When the Russian public learns how many of their people have been killed and wounded in just a few weeks,
The cost to Russia in terms of economic breakdown, cost to finance the war and occupation, and breakdown of international investment and trade relationships will destroy years of economic progress that Russia has made in recent years.
Putin should negotiate whatever concessions he can get from Ukraine and pull his army out while he can save fac
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About 3 days into the military action, when things started going not so well, Russia started bombing Kharkiv, a Russian speaking city near the border. This is significant, because it’s not only a large city. It’s a city that is traditionally quite Russia friendly, lacks nationalist forces, and actually managed to stay out of trouble up until now. It’s nearly completely destroyed now.
What is more, that’s nation’s university. 300 000 students at any given time from all across Ukraine, thousands from China, Pakistan, African nations, south America. So this goes around the world. When all these people, millions who have graduated, who have fond memories of this vibrant city, see what happened to their university, to their dorm or apartment, to the streets they used to walk, they turn. From that day on, Russia has not a single friend in Ukraine left, and probably not many across the world either.
So no matter how the war develops further, it has a priori failed at its stated purpose of converting Ukraine to be more Russia friendly, and it didn’t take them more than a couple days to make that crucial mistake.
Another side effect is brain drain. Tens of thousands of educated professionals are fleeing Russia, starting with people of engineering, tech, finance and creative professions. These are the people that the country requires to build up a new post sanction economy, if it hopes to survive, and they’re gone, if not yet physically, then they’re preparing to move out. Some of them harboured suspicions about the regime for a while and this was the last straw. They’re all well connected enough to see what’s going on. Some have studied in Ukraine and some have friends that did, or friends and family members who are Ukrainian. I believe potentially most Russians have at least a minor personal connection to Ukraine. Like there’s what, over 10 million Ukrainian families in Russia alone, and each of them has dozens of friends, colleagues and acquaintances.
Finland also had strategic defeats both times, in the winter war and continuation war. though the term strategic defeat is used in different context here, in russia´s case.
we called them puolustusvoitto, defensive victory. its when you lose the war, lose something acceptable, but not your independence and most important places.
I love that terminology! I will have to use that!
When is Karelia going home?
@24pavlo Never. If Finland tries to take Karelia back then Helsinki get’s a juicy tactical nuke dropped on it.
Glad to see rational thinking is also prevailing here. You had me worried for a while after that first somewhat dissembling report on the Russian invasion. Keep up the good work, it is very important what you do here to educate the wider world.
And could I suggest an in-depth report on the final collapse of the last of the 18th Century empires? Because it should be clear that this is what we are looking at here.
Thanks for this video & your insight.
I’m thinking that you’re only partially correct – maybe Russia/Putin didn’t/doesn’t intend to occupy the whole of Ukraine but to secure the water & other resources to Crimea (as noted in one of your videos last year) as well as land access to it and recognition that they now own it. Their other goal of denuding Ukraine’s military, at least for a while looks like it could be achieved although how much will remain from EU/NATO’s hand-outs is to be seen, that’s why Russia’s current demand for Ukraine not to hold strategic weapons. As you said, a self-fullfilling prophecy, because now whatever’s left of Ukraine and NATO as a whole will now re-arm and be threatening as Putin has always claimed, but maybe that’s part of the strategy to show he was right about the threat from “The West”…
The Donbass region’s independence will be asked for as that’s what he promised but really it just seems a side issue and a means to give reason to invade.
For Ukraine the lost of life is terrible but the loss of industry and infrastructure and ports (hopefully they can hold Odessa!) could keep them busy rebuilding for a decade or two, however it will push them further from Russia’s orbit and as u said intensify their separate identity.
The production value seems to have got even better. Love this channel ❤️
Keep up the good work! Fantastic!!
Peace is something we all seem to have taken for granted I’m afraid . It’s so very sad. To live in a world where we all live peacefully would be wonderful and the way we move forward as a civilisation when we’re at peace is astonishing. I really hope and pray for peace for all to come quickly with no more suffering and bloodshed.
@Helo Kitty peace is an illusion right now maybe. But humanity can prevail by finding inner peace and then projecting a new found self love onto the world. It all starts with you!!
This has been a relatively peaceful era in our specie’s history. I’m waiting for when the true space race begins. “The Earth is the cradle of humanity, but we cannot remain in the cradle forever.”
That is a fantasy. Unfortunately ordinary people think our leaders are some kind of super enlightened people who would use compassion in their decision making, but in contrary they are driven by the same animalistic instincts that is in everyone of us.
@Elias Sharifi While i cannot upvote you, being an ordinary person, I do agree that the uneducated and frustrated DO seek some kind of violent “redeemer”, instead of maintaining the integrity and desire for individual autonomy that is characteristic of all life and human young.
this VERY NATURAL impulse unfolds in EVERY new seedling or animal, and only abdicated by the adults, or too-well inculcated by them into their offspring.
To teach one’s child or children that some “savior” will crush their enemies is a vile choice, crushing one’s own children – their brain connections being constantly suppressed in early developmental periods, creating autocratic submissives of new young minds almost from birth.
THERE is where the change MUST occur – In encouraging, supporting, and teaching the young of their innate individual capabilities. Only then, they will not become somehow callous monsters as do those who are brutalized by parents and societies.
Thank you again for the good summary of the current situation. A lot of points you discussed here is why I believe Russia seized to try capture the whole of Ukraine, which would prove to be too costly and never completely secured. I rather believe Russia will keep up its offensive until the East and South are completely subdued, either by full surrender oder full destruction. From a military point of view this is the most vital region to the Kreml, they finally would have a complete landbased route to the Crimea with the possibility to let trains and bigger trucks roll down, which the current Crimean Bridge does not support. I do not think that Kyiv is the actual main target of Russia, it might have been in the first week, but since then a lot changed.
And as much as Putin says everything is going according to plan, that statement can’t be true. “No plan survives the first enemy contact.” That is a fact which is true since centuries and every military strategist learns early. This conflict certainly is not the exception.
I guess Russia will step to the diplomatic table soon, probably as soon as the important region is fully under its control and they will keep up the offensive, to pressure the ukrainian government to more favourable terms, but that would not be something new in war. Let’s hope they don’t go more insane and start using non-strategic nukes or worse…
Look and think!!! Ukraine!
https://youtu.be/-K4EkyYFE9I
I should also add that Russia doesn’t care how damaged the cities in Ukraine get. What they care about is manpower and natural resources. The most important natural resources won’t be damaged at all through the war. Manpower wise we could see Russia shifting populations in a way that insurgence (if there is any) won’t be possible. In other words colinize the conquered territory. It’s very possible that they present favorable terms to pro-Putin Russian population to go exploitate the new territory. Lastly sanctions of this scale are a double edged sword. First they need a bit of time to show their true capability in damaging Russian economy. On the other hand if Russia can adapt before its economy gets crippled then they will become immune to the sanctions. Russia is a pretty huge country with a lot of natural resources, especially in Siberia. During the 8 years since the annexation of Crimea has Russia prepared for harsh sanctions. As in have they prepared infrastructure and industries to fill the void of western exports ? People shouldn’t forget that we are only getting the effect of the sanctions from the Western side which have personal interests in making it seem highly effective and hide any detriment. To think Russia ,a long standing rival of NATO, hasn’t prepared to be independent of Western trading is naive. Only time can tell what Russia has planned and how the sanctions are gonna truly effect the globe.
@Alexander Vlaescu The Russian economy clearly wasn’t prepared for this amount of international blowback and there are plenty of signs are already showing this. Effective population shifts (even forced ones) will take at least a decade, and it is highly unlikely Putin (given sanctions coupled with continued Ukrainian resistance) will be able to remain in power for even the next two years. Finally Ukraine is far to big, and it’s population too numerous for effective forced population shifts anyways.
“Nations are born in the battlefield and forged in stories.”….absolutely brilliant
maybe but the way you build spheres of influence in the 21st century is not by murder, is by economic means, the world changed from back in the 1900’s
for example in romania, guess who’s amongst its most important trading partners, has lots of investments and exported lots of culture to romania, turkey, from whom romania got its independence ? ottoman empire, it’s a coincidence? no, yet people in romania are not hostile towards turks and turkey, even more they are considered friendly, it’s a win-win
also who lobbied for ascension of romania to the EU back in ’07? hungary and they secured their freedom of movement in and from transylvania, another win-win
this is how the world works in the 21st century at least in europe and violence is no longer an answer
Ok, Hamid. MIT or MITRE.
@Alexander i would agree that violence is not the answer. i wonder what history says though…and in this fight, it’s far from concluded that Ukraine will prevail. it’s looking right now (March 20th) that russia is rolling, slowly, but rolling. i pray that Ukraine defeats them, but history has its last say, not me.
@daveinpenn this act performed by russia only shows their true level of intelligence and their true face and shows us in the so-called “western bloc” (as they called the EU) to further isolate them, they need us more than we need them anyways and even to build some border wall with no crossing points big and strong enough to block any possible land invasion in the future where we have a common border with them (this would also be a very good “no one wants or will invade you ever” sign because let’s be honest no-one will ever invade russia because there is absolutely no reason to do so
“Born on the battlefield” says a great deal about the whole bunch of us. It seems to be human nature that we grant ultimate authority to whomever can dominate a land by force.
9:50 “In fire iron turns into steel, in struggle people turn into a nation” – Yevhen Knovalets
“A nation” otherwise called the crying game – at gravesides
–
if you are old enough to experience nationhood cults all over the world
@Da Gre Outside of postmodern Western culture, if a country is not very nationalistic, it is probably because it is struggling instead with pan-Peacelamic movements trying to establish a global caliphate
@Scott Watrous Nonsense. Russia has been desteoyed by sanctions. In the UN , every vote on every measure and censure against the Russian invasions and Russia have been near unanimous.
I’m older then Ukraine. And I’m not an old men.
@Mifolyikittgyöngyösön No you’re NOT. Ukrainian language alone shows this. Ukraine fought for independence in 1918. Are you 104?
Since the language is only 62% similar to Russian, and far closer to Belarussian AND Polish, a matter of hundreds or more years of allopatric divergence, are you 700 years old?
Please cease posting misinformation.
Others, FLAG that comment for misinformation, as it is intentional DIRECT LIE.
Those drones don’t necessarily have to be used as weapons. The fact that he has sent so few, and they are the weaker version with little explosive power, suggests that they are for reconnaissance. If they are going to use them as weapons… They won’t be very effective against tanks or armored vehicles. The S 600 version is very effective for that purpose.
I’m concerned about another move from the old Russian playbook that might help them stabilize Ukraine. Shifting populations. In the same way the Tartars were moved from Ukraine in the past they have shown willingness to allow Ukrainians to flee into Russia. By displacing Ukrainians into more stable oblasts and adding Russians to the region the situation may not be peaceful but manageable.
@Micah Boswell expenses paid from what? Russian economy is in shambles!
Well it was allready done in Crimea. A lot of Russians were migrated to Crimea in order to dilute local population and remove as many Ukrainians as they can. Many Russians got free flats, land, houses.
@Siana Gearz it will be expensive due to that, but Putin does not care. They have obviously shown they will spend everything on it
Not going to happen.
@Suu Kin Sin with the west sanctioning the Russian economy into third world status, coupled with continued Ukrainian resistance, it is highly unlikely Putin would be able to stay in power for the next two years, let alone decades (at least) needed for a population shift. Putin does NOT have time on his side in this unjustified and foolish war of his.
I hope things get better, feel so sad for the lives of the civilians out there. 🥺
@Alejandro gomez they do
and when russians shoot their position, there are instantly claims that russians kill civilians
@CodyBi dur wdym then can’t always aim for them, there’s gonna be a stray bullet that’ll hit a civillian or 2
Same thought me not so much for the Russians
sadly they will continue to suffer for many, many years 🙁
@carefulcliffdriver watch russia get into another civil war in a few weeks
Also worth noting is that, by Putin’s singular throw of the dice, he has burned pretty much every bridge he had and committed himself to a corner. Russia’s ability to maneuver strategically on the global stage is permanently crippled so long as he remains in power.
@1 Mol Before that happens we’ll all be dead, fool.
Na-ah. World is much different then you think. It’s rather more opportunities for others who was tired of world situation.
@Empire iranian persian 🇮🇷 “Sanctions are an opportunity for Russia to try to reduce its dependence on the West” , Like buying a hammer is an opportunity to smash your thumb?
@Nemanja Stikic Because support from them matters less on the international stage. You may not like it, but that’s the truth.
@Hi Western Europe is still buying their gas and oil, nothing has changed.
I look forward to your weekly analysis videos. I find it more meaningful than watching the news.
@Forastero and america even more.
@Demitri Lakes well at least you accept you were wrong.
@Forastero re man you have no clue what you are talking about.
go back to your video games.
“nations are born on the battlefield and forged by stories” – great quote Shirvan
@lijmes technically yes, but ehh if you wanna go back farther in history even past the brits then no. Like 13th century times lol
There are reports of forcible abduction of people from Ukraine territory to russian Taganrog and other places. Concentration camps for Ukraine civilians abducted as hostages. And Putler will threat with nuclear weapons soon, Pentagon said. Why are we still so afraid how Putin understands something we eventually do, how he interprets our steps so that we don’t accidentally offend him? To the hell with Putin’s opinions. Kremlin has only one policy. To LIE. Kremlin power comes from lying. Lying big, and getting the whole damn world to play along with them. Once they got everybody agreeing with what they know in their hearts ain’t true, they’ve got us by the neck.
If ordinary russian to this day DON’T even KNOW that there is war in Ukraine, then Putin will not stop. You think that after Putin prevails in Ukraine he will crawl back to his bankrupt Mordor and behave, suddenly being a good boy?
Stop imports of gas and oil EU. ONE MONTH and Russia will bankrupt, Putin ovethrown and war ended. Russian federation MUST IMMEDIATELY feel the consequences of their barbaric war, that is the only way.
No western politician should ever talk to Putin, Lavrov, Peskov and other henchmen of bloody dictator and war criminal. Even being in one room with these people must be unbearable to any decent moral man and should be considered as gravely insult to all murdered women and children of Ukraine.
Recent reckless attacks on civilians, blatant cynical violations of the Geneva Conventions show us clearly, that Putin’s Russia is terrorist state, unpredictable, lying, deceptive and dangerous to humankind.
Never negotiate with terrorists in Kremlin. Putin’s kleptocracy is out of money. Just like Hitler before war. He stole from jews, killing them openly since Nuremberg Laws enacted in Nazi Germany in 1935. His economy was centralised and de facto nationalized. He was near bankrupcy and to conquer other states and plunder and steal was for him a must. And Putin is in EXACTLY the same situation. Russian economy is failing and he is a rabid dog. You can’t negotiate or argue with rabid dog, you put it down.
In these very moments there are children in Mariupol who dies from dehydration. 90 percent of this city is razed to the ground. There is NO water now, no supplies. Russians not let anyone in or out. All ways from the city are mined and shelled. Shelters in numerous cities are now deliberately shelled and bombed. It is russian pattern. Encircle the city and shell it with Grad and Smerch rocket artilery, conventional artilery, airstrikes… salvo after salvo. You saw it in Grozny, you saw it in Aleppo and whole Syria, now you can see this in Mariupol and Khariv. Purpose is one and only – to inflict TERROR, to break morale, by ruthless killing of women and children alike. The most barbaric way to wage a war. It is genocide. Another of long line of war crimes made by Putin.
Putin is liar and faker, who rules trough fear. Atomics? Mutual assured destruction (MAD) is a doctrine of military strategy and national security policy in which a full-scale use of nuclear weapons by two or more opposing sides would cause the complete annihilation of both the attacker and the defender. Putin can not launch them by himself, he needs both Shoygu, Gerasimov and few others to do so and they are not mad.
Unless Russia is defeated in Ukraine NOW, before Mariupol, Kharkiv and other cities are razed to the ground, if the west will not confront Putler now, then soon enough will world watch how Putin invades Moldova, Georgia and finally, Baltic states – NATO members. And then NATO will again do nothing serious for the same fear of russian nuclear weapons. Risk WW3 for such a little state? Pff. Maybe it is only civil war, better not meddle in it. That day will be the end of NATO as failed phony alliance. Dear NATO, you talk the talk, but do you walk the walk? I doub it. But what matters is that tsar Putin doubts that too. To break NATO and west by lies is long term target of Kremlin. Mark my words. Putin’s kleptocracy, aka Russian federation is now the same that once was Hiltler’s nazi Third reich. World will find out that to be true, sooner or later. History repeats itself.
It is dire need of actual power projection in Ukraine. For God sake give them already fuel, long range sams, ciws, iron dome, bring in anything, airdrop food and supplies. Make some air bridge to Mariupol like in cold war Berlin, for God’s sake, Macron, Scholz, Johnson grow a pair already.
How long will be just keep watching. Must Chornobyl, where russians now cut of power for cooling, again leak radiation. Must the biggest european nuclear power plant Zaporizhzhia became another Chornobyl dissaster? Must we see radioactive cloud overe Europe again, and only then we maybe seriously assist Ukraine or what? Do you know that russians there allowed only skeleton crew to hold them as hostages and that russians rigged this facility with explosives? This is nuclear terrorism. Pure and simple.
After all “Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely” as Lord Acton said already in 19th century. Quite accurate description of tsar Putin the Bloody .
Putin understands only power and determination. Everything else is sign of weakness for him. Do everything what is in your power to drive Putin’s kleptocracy to the end. Talk to your representatives. God bless you.
“Let not any one pacify his conscience by the delusion that he can do no harm if he takes no part, and forms no opinion. Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing. He is not a good man who, without a protest, allows wrong to be committed in his name, and with the means which he helps to supply, because he will not trouble himself to use his mind on the subject.”
– John Stuart Mill, 1867
“Appeasement policy, the policy of appeasing Hitler and Mussolini, operating jointly at that time, during 1937 and 1938 by continuous concessions granted in the hope of reaching a point of saturation when the dictators would be willing to accede to international collaboration. … It came to an end when Hitler seized Czechoslovakia on March 15, 1939, in defiance of his promises given at Munich, and Prime Minister Chamberlain, who had championed appeasement before,
decided on a policy of resistance to further German aggression.”
– Walter Theimer (ed.), The Penguin Political Dictionary, 1939
@Dima Ignatiev that was right when few peoples were in charge of writing, diffusing and telling history… nowadays, like everything else, history is way more available and recorded… to clean history and only leave his own version, he would need to conquer and “clean” most of the world…
@Dima Ignatiev thats the neat part you cant remove them lots of country keep their identity after years of occupation
Israel Ireland Poland Finland Tibet greece ,… etc
In my opinion for ukraine to win its not about defeating the russians, its about making the war too costly to continue, just like with usa in vietnam
That’s what the are doing. They gonna drag this war as much as possible. The best thing for Putin to do is negotiate. He will get more in negotiation that fighting it out.
It doesn’t hurt that Ukrainians are killing twice as many russians in 3 weeks as the U.S. lost every 2 years in Viet Nam, tho.
first no one will win this and ukraine will lose russia is fighting this war with a hand tied behind its back and if western news keeps lieing about the war saying every missle russia fires is at civilians on perpose with no milltary target behind it russia is just going to lay those citys to waste because they are getting blamed for it anyways and i like how the us acting like they didnt kill two hundred thousand civilians in iraq war and no its not like vietnam theres no jungle to hide in and bleed russia to death with 1000 cuts .
@John Ellis sounds like a smarter plan. I think that there many in the Russian Army who are like Americans, not top soldier level. The questions I have:
1) why are they in convoys in the first place?
2) why cant they protect there generals better?
3) why arnt they more stealthy?
I dont see why the Russian just set up bases and stealth into citites with terrorist type tactic.
Their goals are to occupy Russian populated areas and protect them, destroy incoming weapons, control power stations and water source for Crimea, prevent any NATO missiles set up.
“too costly” means the amount of people dying. This is not a solution to be repeated!
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@Cerolus Elazurin
They did not consider that option by design.
BS Alert
@J Be a little polite, will you?
Same thing with Putin, talking about Nazi’s.
As president he should show a little respect for others.
Kiev is not surrounded, the south is still open to the rest of the Ukraine. The advance of the Russians has stalled.
Ukraine can attack the supply lines. Either with soldiers, or with drones.
And the tanks and artillary are attacked as well, with anti tank guns.
Even airdrop supplies is dangerous.
Those supply planes are large and slow, a perfect target for shoulder type rocket launchers.
I know Russia still delivers oil and gas.
Sanctions are still harsh. Russia needs software, spare parts for planes, clothes, furniture etc.
Further, I have the strong feeling that our information is more honest.
Example: a former general explained that it is wishfull thinking that Ukraine will win.
Compare that with Russia. Only 1 story is allowed, the official one. Any other opinion is banned so the info to the Russian people is VERY one-sided.
@J How can you know that?
It is a win win situation for militsry contractors: NATO expands, they get more customers. War starts, then they get a military escalation snd even more customers.
Cui bono? Who profits… That is a key question that always has to be asked to see who is pulling the strings.